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广东省人民政府首页  >  要闻动态  >  广东要闻

机器人的觉醒与隐忧

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月10日 16:56:15
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(之)(一)(ABB购)(买)(了)(75台)(“IRB120”工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(,开)(始)(了)(重)(构)(生)(产)(线)(的)(旅)(途)(。  这)(是)(近)(乎)(冒)(险)(的)(尝)(试)(,雷)(柏)(科)(技)(包)(括)(购)(买)(ABB机)(器)(人)(在)(内)(的)(自)(动)(化)(改)(造)(花)(费)(超)(过)(3000万)(元)(,此)(前)(国)(内)(键)(鼠)(行)(业)(尚)(无)(使)(用)(机)(器)(人)(的)(成)(功)(经)(验)(。但)(如)(今)(雷)(柏)(科)(技)(在)(这)(条)(路)(上)(已)(初)(步)(成)(功)(,并)(被)(业)(界)(当)(作)(轻)(量)(级)(机)(器)(人)(运)(用)(的)(典)(范)(。  用)(工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(替)(换)(人)(工)(,这)(已)(是)(国)(内)(制)(造)(业)(的)(大)(势)(所)(趋)(。但)(据)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(多)(方)(采)(访)(,在)(成)(本)(收)(益)(的)(仔)(细)(考)(量)(下)(,大)(多)(数)(企)(业)(在)(“上)(不)(上)(机)(器)(人)(”临)(界)(点)(的)(纠)(结)(仍)(未)(突)(破)(;3C、工)(程)(机)(械)(、物)(流)(等)(细)(分)(行)(业)(的)(临)(界)(点)(已)(逐)(渐)(临)(近)(,有)(望)(在)(未)(来)(数)(年)(内)(率)(先)(实)(现)(需)(求)(端)(的)(爆)(发)(性)(增)(长)(。  人)(工)(替)(代)(的)(成)(本)(临)(界)(点)(  雷)(柏)(科)(技)(主)(要)(生)(产)(鼠)(标)(、键)(盘)(等)(无)(线)(外)(设)(产)(品)(,在)(国)(内)(无)(线)(键)(鼠)(行)(业)(市)(场)(占)(有)(率)(排)(名)(第)(一)(。在)(组)(装)(键)(盘)(的)(车)(间)(里)(,雷)(柏)(科)(技)(高)(级)(经)(理)(孙)(青)(根)(指)(着)(正)(灵)(活)(操)(作)(的)(机)(器)(人)(说)(,这)(个)(车)(间)(原)(本)(需)(要)(105个)(工)(人)(,但)(如)(今)(,用)(户)(有)(七)(个)(小)(型)(机)(器)(人)(构)(建)(的)(升)(级)(版)(生)(产)(线)(只)(需)(3-4个)(工)(人)(即)(可)(。  “我)(们)(2011年)(的)(时)(候)(有)(3200个)(工)(人)(,目)(前)(大)(约)(1000人)(。”雷)(柏)(科)(技)(副)(总)(经)(理)(邓)(邱)(伟)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,正)(是)(预)(计)(到)(用)(工)(成)(本)(的)(上)(升)(,公)(司)(才)(下)(定)(决)(心)(使)(用)(机)(器)(人)(。而)(3年)(内)(工)(厂)(已)(经)(4次)(涨)(薪)(,每)(次)(幅)(度)(都)(超)(过)(10%,目)(前)(平)(均)(为)(一)(个)(工)(人)(付)(出)(的)(成)(本)(已)(经)(要)(五)(六)(千)(元)(,从)(公)(司)(投)(资)(收)(益)(的)(角)(度)(而)(言)(改)(造)(是)(值)(得)(的)(。  邓)(邱)(伟)(则)(透)(露)(,机)(器)(人)(只)(是)(基)(础)(,更)(重)(要)(的)(是)(基)(于)(机)(器)(人)(重)(构)(生)(产)(线)(,所)(以)(公)(司)(才)(能)(省)(去)(这)(么)(多)(的)(人)(工)(。就)(雷)(柏)(科)(技)(而)(言)(,只)(要)(能)(在)(五)(年)(内)(回)(收)(成)(本)(的)(生)(产)(线)(,公)(司)(都)(认)(为)(有)(替)(换)(价)(值)(,目)(前)(这)(样)(的)(替)(换)(已)(经)(完)(成)(了)(70%,还)(有)(30%的)(空)(间)(可)(以)(慢)(慢)(做)(。“现)(在)(看)(是)(五)(年)(,可)(能)(过)(两)(年)(来)(看)(就)(没)(有)(五)(年)(了)(。”  “我)(就)(告)(诉)(你)(一)(个)(数)(字)(的)(变)(化)(,在)((营)(业)(收)(入)()做)(到)(800多)(亿)(时)(,我)(们)(是)(九)(万)(六)(千)(人)(,现)(在)(我)(们)(做)(到)(1200亿)(,但)(只)(有)(八)(万)(人)(。”格)(力)(电)(器)((000651.SZ)董)(事)(长)(兼)(总)(裁)(董)(明)(珠)(对)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(称)(。  选)(择)(改)(变)(的)(还)(有)(茂)(硕)(电)(源)((002660.SZ),这)(家)(同)(样)(位)(于)(深)(圳)(的)(LED驱)(动)(电)(源)(行)(业)(龙)(头)(企)(业)(,目)(前)(正)(在)(进)(行)(规)(划)(新)(的)(生)(产)(线)(。  该)(公)(司)(募)(投)(项)(目)(为)(惠)(州)(茂)(硕)(电)(源)(驱)(动)(生)(产)(厂)(,分)(管)(新)(工)(厂)(智)(能)(生)(产)(线)(规)(划)(、建)(设)(的)(总)(裁)(办)(副)(主)(任)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,前)(期)(试)(验)(性)(的)(两)(条)(生)(产)(线)(目)(前)(已)(设)(计)(好)(,在)(委)(托)(厂)(家)(生)(产)(,每)(条)(线)(是)(6台)(机)(器)(人)(,共)(12台)(机)(器)(人)(。原)(本)(一)(条)(生)(产)(线)(需)(要)(约)(60名)(工)(人)(,现)(在)(只)(要)(三)(分)(之)(一)(的)(人)(。  “电)(源)(行)(业)(还)(没)(有)(公)(司)(做)(过)(这)(样)(的)(尝)(试)(。”这)(位)(副)(主)(任)(表)(示)(,公)(司)(对)(此)(很)(谨)(慎)(,前)(期)(进)(行)(了)(诸)(多)(调)(研)(、规)(划)(工)(作)(,经)(过)(计)(算)(,升)(级)(的)(生)(产)(线)(能)(减)(少)(三)(分)(之)(二)(的)(人)(工)(,由)(此)(减)(少)(的)(人)(工)(成)(本)(支)(出)(,在)(两)(年)(内)(即)(可)(覆)(盖)(为)(升)(级)(而)(支)(出)(的)(费)(用)(,等)(于)(是)(两)(年)(内)(回)(收)(成)(本)(。  由)(此)(可)(见)(,考)(量)(机)(器)(人)(应)(用)(生)(产)(线)(的)(直)(接)(因)(素)(就)(是)(人)(工)(成)(本)(。“2015年)(我)(们)(的)(工)(人)(工)(资)((准)(备)()要)(提)(高)(15%到)(20%。”美)(的)(集)(团)((000333.SZ)董)(事)(长)(兼)(总)(裁)(方)(洪)(波)(说)(。  格)(力)(电)(器)(的)(机)(器)(人)(供)(应)(商)(的)(一)(位)(负)(责)(人)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,格)(力)(电)(器)(从)(原)(本)(九)(万)(六)(千)(人)(到)(现)(在)(八)(万)(人)(,未)(来)(的)(目)(标)(还)(要)(减)(少)(到)(六)(万)(人)(以)(内)(。  与)(此)(相)(反)(,工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(的)(使)(用)(成)(本)(则)(在)(逐)(步)(下)(滑)(。  原)(国)(家)(863计)(划)(智)(能)(机)(器)(人)(主)(题)(专)(家)(组)(副)(组)(长)(、北)(京)(航)(空)(航)(天)(大)(学)(教)(授)(宗)(光)(华)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,目)(前)(机)(器)(人)(的)(成)(本)(平)(均)(每)(年)(以)(大)(约)(4%的)(比)(例)(下)(降)(。  这)(两)(条)(成)(本)(曲)(线)(的)(逐)(渐)(接)(近)(是)(一)(个)(温)(水)(煮)(青)(蛙)(式)(的)(过)(程)(,而)(在)(某)(些)(工)(种)(或)(者)(细)(分)(行)(业)(,这)(两)(条)(线)(已)(然)(相)(交)(。  细)(分)(行)(业)(突)(破)(口)(  一)(般)(而)(言)(,合)(适)(用)(工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(替)(换)(人)(工)(的)(领)(域)(包)(括)(:人)(力)(成)(本)(很)(高)(、对)(精)(确)(度)(要)(求)(很)(高)(的)(领)(域)(,人)(去)(不)(了)(或)(者)(由)(人)(工)(完)(成)(有)(损)(健)(康)(的)(工)(作)(。  最)(显)(著)(的)(行)(业)(是)(汽)(车)(,这)(是)(一)(个)(成)(熟)(使)(用)(机)(器)(人)(进)(行)(生)(产)(制)(造)(的)(行)(业)(。一)(位)(熟)(悉)(机)(器)(人)(产)(业)(链)(的)(券)(商)(分)(析)(师)(认)(为)(,3C行)(业)((电)(脑)(、通)(讯)(和)(消)(费)(性)(电)(子)()是)(接)(下)(来)(用)(工)(作)(机)(器)(人)(替)(换)(人)(工)(空)(间)(的)(大)(行)(业)(。  中)(国)(集)(中)(了)(全)(球)(70%的)(3C产)(品)(产)(能)(,3C产)(业)(目)(前)(自)(动)(化)(程)(度)(仍)(较)(低)(,构)(成)(了)(一)(块)(中)(国)(特)(殊)(的)(、其)(他)(国)(家)(无)(法)(借)(鉴)(的)(机)(器)(人)(市)(场)(,目)(前)(已)(实)(现)(机)(器)(人)(自)(动)(化)(生)(产)(的)(环)(节)(主)(要)(为)(外)(壳)(、玻)(璃)(、盖)(板)(以)(及)(最)(后)(组)(装)(阶)(段)(等)(。  “预)(计)(未)(来)(物)(流)(、食)(品)(饮)(料)(、医)(药)(、塑)(料)(、卫)(浴)(、冲)(压)(、打)(磨)(等)(行)(业)(对)(机)(器)(人)(的)(需)(求)(增)(速)(都)(会)(较)(快)(。”上)(述)(分)(析)(师)(说)(。  广)(州)(数)(控)(设)(备)(有)(限)(公)(司)(主)(营)(业)(务)(包)(括)(工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(,其)(产)(品)(应)(用)(于)(搬)(运)(、弧)(焊)(、涂)(胶)(、切)(割)(、喷)(漆)(、科)(研)(及)(教)(学)(、机)(床)(加)(工)(上)(下)(料)(等)(领)(域)(。该)(公)(司)(一)(位)(人)(士)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,机)(械)(行)(业)(中)(的)(喷)(涂)(、搬)(运)(、上)(下)(料)(都)(是)(目)(前)(替)(换)(需)(求)(很)(高)(的)(工)(种)(。  “机)(械)(行)(业)(的)(工)(人)(比)(较)(累)(,一)(般)(现)(在)(90后)(都)(不)(是)(很)(愿)(意)(干)(这)(种)(活)(。”上)(述)(人)(士)(介)(绍)(,尤)(其)(是)(上)(下)(料)(,这)(一)(块)(的)(技)(工)(成)(本)(太)(高)(了)(,珠)(三)(角)(很)(难)(招)(到)(人)(,而)(冲)(压)(也)(是)(高)(危)(险)(的)(工)(种)(,每)(年)(工)(伤)(事)(故)(很)(多)(,工)(作)(太)(紧)(张)(太)(枯)(燥)(,不)(停)(重)(复)(。  2011年)(,郭)(台)(铭)(在)(富)(士)(康)(员)(工)(频)(繁)(出)(现)(跳)(楼)(事)(件)(后)(曾)(表)(示)(,2012年)(富)(士)(康)(将)(以)(日)(产)(千)(台)(的)(速)(度)(制)(造)(30万)(台)(机)(器)(人)(,用)(于)(单)(调)(、危)(险)(性)(强)(的)(工)(作)(,提)(高)(公)(司)(的)(自)(动)(化)(水)(平)(和)(生)(产)(效)(率)(,到)(2014年)(装)(配)(100万)(台)(机)(械)(臂)(。今)(年)(4月)(份)(,郭)(台)(铭)(声)(称)(:“我)(们)(许)(多)(工)(厂)(已)(经)(实)(现)(了)(关)(灯)(生)(产)(,不)(需)(要)(人)(员)(,完)(全)(靠)(机)(械)(人)(和)(机)(械)(手)(。”  家)(电)(企)(业)(亦)(是)(替)(换)(大)(军)(之)(一)(。  21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(从)(美)(的)(集)(团)(获)(悉)(,从)(2010年)(开)(始)(,美)(的)(家)(用)(空)(调)(事)(业)(部)(便)(已)(经)(在)(各)(个)(车)(间)(广)(泛)(应)(用)(各)(类)(三)(轴)(、四)(轴)(机)(器)(人)(。目)(前)(,在)(生)(产)(线)(机)(器)(人)(应)(用)(方)(面)(,美)(的)(家)(用)(空)(调)(注)(塑)(生)(产)(线)(共)(计)(投)(入)(近)(200台)(、总)(装)(成)(品)(下)(线)(100余)(台)(。其)(他)(电)(子)(、部)(装)(装)(配)(机)(器)(人)(近)(200台)(。经)(公)(司)(测)(算)(,2013年)(因)(自)(动)(化)(提)(升)(,美)(的)(空)(调)(直)(接)(人)(工)(成)(本)(降)(低)(了)(800余)(万)(。  “成)(本)(回)(收)(时)(间)(是)(企)(业)(考)(虑)(最)(多)(的)(因)(素)(。”前)(述)(广)(州)(数)(控)(人)(士)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,为)(客)(户)(做)(方)(案)(时)(,要)(计)(算)(好)(成)(本)(,“一)(般)(而)(言)(,能)(在)(一)(年)(半)(到)(两)(年)(回)(收)(,企)(业)(就)(比)(较)(愿)(意)(做)(,因)(为)(时)(间)(太)(长)(,企)(业)(怕)(生)(产)(的)(产)(品)(改)(变)(,升)(级)(完)(生)(产)(线)(的)(成)(本)(得)(部)(分)(浪)(费)(掉)(。”  国)(产)(化)(之)(痛)(  统)(计)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,目)(前)(国)(外)(机)(器)(人)(制)(造)(企)(业)(占)(据)(中)(国)(约)(90%的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(,发)(那)(科)(、安)(川)(、库)(卡)(、ABB四)(家)(公)(司)(合)(计)(占)(据)(约)(65%的)(市)(场)(份)(额)(。  国)(内)(机)(器)(人)(企)(业)(则)(处)(于)(发)(展)(的)(起)(步)(阶)(段)(。其)(中)(,沈)(阳)(新)(松)(机)(器)(人)(、安)(徽)(埃)(夫)(特)(、广)(州)(数)(控)(是)(国)(内)(机)(器)(人)(生)(产)(企)(业)(的)(第)(一)(梯)(队)(。  作)(为)(一)(家)(本)(土)(机)(器)(人)(厂)(商)(,深)(圳)(市)(福)(士)(工)(业)(科)(技)(有)(限)(公)(司)(营)(销)(负)(责)(人)(李)(俊)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,国)(产)(机)(器)(人)(目)(前)(面)(临)(的)(最)(大)(问)(题)(还)(是)(核)(心)(部)(件)(无)(法)(自)(产)(。“我)(们)(现)(在)(采)(购)(国)(外)(的)(减)(速)(器)(、伺)(服)(电)(机)(等)(零)(部)(件)(,相)(比)(外)(企)(自)(产)(自)(用)(的)(成)(本)(要)(高)(三)(五)(倍)(以)(上)(。”  减)(速)(器)(约)(占)(一)(台)(机)(器)(人)(成)(本)(的)(35%。邓)(邱)(伟)(表)(示)(,由)(于)(国)(内)(厂)(商)(这)(一)(核)(心)(零)(部)(件)(的)(成)(本)(明)(显)(高)(于)(日)(本)(企)(业)(,所)(以)(在)(整)(体)(机)(器)(人)(的)(成)(本)(上)(很)(难)(竞)(争)(。  高)(工)(产)(业)(研)(究)(院)(机)(器)(人)(高)(级)(分)(析)(师)(陈)(超)(鹏)(指)(出)(,目)(前)(国)(产)(机)(器)(人)(大)(多)(为)(非)(标)(机)(器)(人)(,即)(按)(照)(下)(游)(中)(小)(企)(业)(的)(特)(定)(需)(求)(做)(定)(制)(化)(的)(生)(产)(,而)(国)(外)(几)(大)(企)(业)(更)(多)(是)(批)(量)(化)(生)(产)(的)(标)(准)(机)(器)(人)(,非)(标)(机)(器)(人)(能)(够)(适)(应)(国)(内)(中)(小)(企)(业)(复)(杂)(多)(变)(的)(环)(境)(需)(求)(,但)(由)(于)(难)(以)(批)(量)(化)(生)(产)(,这)(种)(模)(式)(很)(难)(诞)(生)(出)(业)(内)(的)(巨)(头)(企)(业)(。  在)(约)(10%的)(市)(场)(缝)(隙)(中)(,国)(内)(数)(百)(家)(机)(器)(人)(企)(业)(激)(烈)(争)(抢)(。一)(个)(有)(趣)(的)(现)(象)(是)(,国)(内)(诸)(多)(机)(器)(人)(买)(方)(正)(逐)(步)(自)(己)(制)(造)(机)(器)(人)(,甚)(至)(成)(为)(新)(的)(卖)(方)(。  汽)(车)(行)(业)(已)(有)(先)(例)(。奇)(瑞)(汽)(车)(公)(司)(2012年)(底)(就)(宣)(布)(,由)(奇)(瑞)(公)(司)(自)(主)(研)(发)(的)(200台)(机)(器)(人)(开)(始)(陆)(续)(投)(入)(应)(用)(,奇)(瑞)(将)(在)(未)(来)(三)(年)(内)(打)(造)(初)(具)(规)(模)(的)(工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(产)(业)(化)(基)(地)(。  前)(述)(了)(解)(富)(士)(康)(的)(机)(器)(人)(行)(业)(人)(士)(表)(示)(,富)(士)(康)(会)(把)(一)(部)(分)(机)(器)(人)(替)(换)(的)(项)(目)(拿)(出)(来)(招)(标)(,但)(公)(司)(自)(己)(很)(重)(视)(培)(育)(自)(己)(的)(机)(器)(人)(事)(业)(部)(。  “相)(比)(于)(其)(他)(行)(业)(,家)(电)(行)(业)(属)(于)(又)(不)(愿)(意)(出)(钱)(又)(拽)(的)(,一)(个)(机)(器)(人)(应)(用)(招)(标)(,能)(让)(十)(几)(家)(机)(器)(人)(企)(业)(去)(报)(价)(和)(报)(方)(案)(,摸)(底)(之)(后)(一)(般)(选)(择)(最)(便)(宜)(的)(,经)(过)(小)(批)(量)(采)(购)(后)(,自)(己)(学)(会)(了)(就)(自)(己)(生)(产)(机)(器)(人)(。”上)(述)(行)(业)(人)(士)(称)(,“家)(电)(厂)(商)(最)(后)(估)(计)(是)(自)(己)(做)(机)(器)(人)(,譬)(如)(格)(力)(、美)(的)(。”  雷)(柏)(科)(技)(更)(是)(从)(买)(方)(到)(卖)(方)(的)(典)(型)(。其)(副)(总)(经)(理)(邓)(邱)(伟)(名)(片)(上)(印)(着)(另)(一)(个)(头)(衔)(“雷)(柏)(机)(器)(人)(总)(经)(理)(”。  邓)(邱)(伟)(告)(诉)(21世)(纪)(经)(济)(报)(道)(记)(者)(,公)(司)(已)(成)(立)(了)(雷)(柏)(机)(器)(人)(的)(部)(门)(,现)(在)(有)(50多)(个)(人)(的)(团)(队)(,就)(是)(为)(了)(把)(公)(司)(在)(机)(器)(人)(应)(用)(上)(的)(经)(验)(形)(成)(另)(外)(的)(商)(业)(模)(式)(,包)(括)(做)(顾)(问)(,或)(者)(销)(售)(机)(器)(人)(。目)(前)(已)(有)(10多)(手)(机)(、遥)(控)(器)(等)(行)(业)(客)(户)(,都)(是)(轻)(量)(级)(机)(器)(人)(应)(用)(在)(装)(配)(领)(域)(,主)(要)(在)(深)(圳)(、珠)(海)(、河)(源)(、东)(莞)(等)(地)(。除)(了)(ABB,安)(川)(、库)(卡)(也)(与)(公)(司)(合)(作)(,公)(司)(对)(外)(销)(售)(的)(机)(器)(人)(本)(体)(多)(用)(这)(些)(公)(司)(的)(。  “进)(展)(比)(预)(期)(的)(快)(。”邓)(邱)(伟)(表)(示)(,但)(自)(己)(做)(机)(器)(人)(其)(实)(也)(很)(苦)(恼)(,因)(为)(这)(块)(挣)(不)(了)(快)(钱)(,每)(一)(个)(项)(目)((一)(条)(生)(产)(线)(上)(的)(一)(个)(环)(节)()都)(不)(同)(,很)(不)(容)(易)(,需)(要)(很)(深)(入)(思)(考)(,一)(个)(项)(目)(就)(需)(要)(花)(费)(五)(六)(个)(月)(。  “工)(业)(机)(器)(人)(行)(业)(是)(国)(家)(鼓)(励)(发)(展)(的)(行)(业)(,现)(在)(大)(家)(一)(拥)(而)(上)(,很)(怕)(结)(果)(会)(变)(成)(像)(光)(伏)(一)(样)(产)(生)(诸)(多)(问)(题)(。”前)(述)(机)(器)(人)(行)(业)(人)(士)(不)(无)(担)(忧)(地)(表)(示)(。(编)(辑)(王)(志)(灵)()点)(击)(进)(入)(【股)(友)(会)(】参)(与)(讨)(论)(
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