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机器智能:后互联网时代的“蒸汽机”

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2018年12月10日 16:56:35
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(  大)(数)(据)(不)(是)(机)(器)(智)(能)(
  我)(们)(每)(天)(面)(临)(着)(太)(多)(的)(新)(技)(术)(,比)(如)(VR/AR,3D打)(印)(,大)(数)(据)(等)(等)(,但)(每)(种)(技)(术)(所)(蕴)(含)(的)(能)(级)(和)(所)(影)(响)(的)(范)(围)(其)(实)(是)(不)(同)(的)(。这)(其)(中)(非)(常)(容)(易)(混)(淆)(的)(是)(大)(数)(据)(与)(机)(器)(智)(能)(,这)(两)(种)(技)(术)(有)(交)(集)(,因)(为)(机)(器)(智)(能)(所)(用)(的)(数)(据)(和)(计)(算)(平)(台)(至)(少)(暂)(时)(还)(是)(与)(大)(数)(据)(的)(深)(度)(相)(关)(。但)(机)(器)(智)(能)(不)(是)(大)(数)(据)(,这)(就)(和)(馒)(头)(是)(用)(面)(粉)(做)(成)(的)(,但)(馒)(头)(不)(是)(面)(粉)(是)(同)(样)(的)(道)(理)(。
  从)(宏)(观)(视)(角)(俯)(视)(特)(别)(容)(易)(看)(清)(楚)(这)(问)(题)(,机)(器)(智)(能)(所)(波)(及)(的)(范)(围)(要)(比)(大)(数)(据)(更)(宽)(广)(。
  IBM的)(深)(蓝)(97年)(曾)(经)(击)(败)(国)(际)(象)(棋)(世)(界)(冠)(军)(卡)(斯)(帕)(罗)(夫)(,那)(时)(候)(IBM着)(眼)(点)(其)(实)(是)(它)(的)(超)(级)(计)(算)(机)(;到)(2011年)(Watson参)(加)(危)(险)(边)(缘)(游)(戏)(并)(获)(得)(冠)(军)(时)(,Watson其)(实)(是)(带)(了)(4T的)(数)(据)(,并)(没)(连)(上)(互)(联)(网)(。这)(意)(味)(着)(人)(工)(智)(能)(在)(一)(些)(相)(对)(封)(闭)(的)(环)(境)(里)(一)(样)(可)(以)(产)(生)(巨)(大)(的)(价)(值)(,更)(像)(是)(PC的)(大)(升)(级)(,只)(不)(过)(这)(种)(升)(级)(通)(常)(需)(要)(较)(大)(的)(数)(据)(量)(做)(支)(撑)(。
  当)(然)(在)(联)(网)(的)(环)(境)(下)(机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(应)(用)(就)(更)(加)(宽)(泛)(,网)(上)(一)(直)(传)(说)(彼)(得)(·蒂)(尔)(创)(建)(的)(Palantir与)(抓)(捕)(本)(拉)(登)(有)(关)(,这)(虽)(然)(很)(难)(确)(认)(但)(确)(实)(是)(有)(可)(能)(的)(。分)(析)(大)(量)(交)(易)(数)(据)(,找)(到)(其)(中)(异)(常)(的)(模)(式)(,缩)(小)(范)(围)(,这)(无)(疑)(可)(以)(提)(高)(抓)(捕)(的)(效)(率)(。这)(还)(不)(只)(是)(恐)(怖)(分)(子)(的)(问)(题)(,其)(它)(犯)(罪)(一)(样)(可)(以)(通)(过)(这)(种)(模)(式)(获)(得)(突)(破)(口)(,只)(要)(相)(应)(的)(人)(在)(犯)(罪)(的)(时)(候)(行)(为)(模)(式)(异)(常)(,比)(如)(毒)(贩)(可)(能)(一)(个)(手)(机)(就)(用)(一)(天)(这)(类)(。
  机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(应)(用)(其)(实)(是)(没)(有)(边)(界)(的)(,会)(全)(面)(的)(向)(各)(种)(端)(、各)(种)(领)(域)(进)(行)(渗)(透)(,比)(如)(语)(音)(助)(手)(、相)(册)(应)(用)(、Pepper机)(器)(人)(、医)(疗)(、教)(育)(等)(等)(。不)(是)(大)(数)(据)(的)(一)(个)(子)(集)(,而)(像)(是)(大)(数)(据)(与)(其)(它)(领)(域)(混)(合)(进)(化)(后)(的)(结)(果)(。
  现)(在)(很)(多)(人)(还)(没)(意)(识)(到)(这)(点)(,即)(使)(是)(一)(些)(比)(较)(有)(名)(的)(技)(术)(会)(议)(,也)(还)(把)(机)(器)(学)(习)(这)(样)(的)(话)(题)(列)(在)(大)(数)(据)(下)(面)(。但)(几)(年)(后)(很)(可)(能)(情)(形)(会)(掉)(过)(来)(,大)(数)(据)(变)(得)(门)(庭)(冷)(落)(,而)(成)(为)(机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(一)(个)(子)(集)(。
  谁)(会)(被)(机)(器)(智)(能)(这)(浪)(潮)(碾)(压)(?
  当)(前)(机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(威)(力)(在)(2B上)(体)(现)(的)(比)(较)(多)(,在)(2C上)(体)(现)(的)(还)(不)(明)(显)(。最)(体)(现)(机)(器)(智)(能)(成)(就)(的)(两)(类)(2C产)(品)(一)(个)(是)(GoogleNow这)(样)(的)(语)(音)(助)(手)(,一)(个)(是)(自)(动)(驾)(驶)(汽)(车)(,而)(即)(使)(是)(语)(音)(助)(手)(其)(应)(用)(比)(率)(也)(还)(需)(要)(提)(高)(。如)(果)(说)(机)(器)(智)(能)(是)(互)(联)(网)(量)(级)(的)(技)(术)(变)(革)(,那)(这)(肯)(定)(只)(是)(开)(头)(,后)(面)(故)(事)(还)(长)(。
  那)(在)(这)(浪)(潮)(中)(谁)(更)(可)(能)(会)(被)(碾)(压)(?
  第)(一)(类)(是)(对)(机)(器)(智)(能)(无)(知)(觉)(的)(人)(。有)(新)(闻)(报)(道)(很)(多)(汽)(车)(厂)(商)(感)(受)(到)(了)(Google无)(人)(驾)(驶)(汽)(车)(的)(威)(胁)(,准)(备)(开)(始)(做)(无)(人)(驾)(驶)(了)(。正)(常)(情)(形)(下)(这)(很)(难)(成)(功)(,因)(为)(Google无)(人)(驾)(驶)(汽)(车)(的)(核)(心)(根)(本)(不)(是)(汽)(车)(,而)(是)(机)(器)(智)(能)(,两)(个)(公)(司)(在)(机)(器)(智)(能)(上)(有)(多)(大)(差)(距)(在)(这)(产)(品)(上)(就)(有)(多)(大)(差)(距)(。而)(我)(们)(可)(以)(认)(为)(汽)(车)(公)(司)(有)(很)(高)(的)(机)(器)(智)(能)(水)(平)(吗)(?如)(果)(没)(有)(,那)(怎)(么)(成)(功)(。
  同)(理)(我)(也)(怀)(疑)(Pepper这)(种)(机)(器)(人)(的)(前)(景)(,越)(到)(后)(来)(越)(是)(机)(器)(智)(能)((需)(要)(有)(大)(数)(据)(支)(撑)()决)(定)(这)(类)(产)(品)(的)(体)(验)(和)(价)(值)(,把)(它)(单)(纯)(看)(做)(一)(种)(终)(端)(产)(品)(无)(疑)(的)(是)(危)(险)(的)(,更)(何)(况)(它)(还)(是)(一)(个)(奇)(特)(的)(偏)(娱)(乐)(的)(2C定)(位)(。
  第)(二)(类)(是)(掉)(到)(思)(维)(陷)(阱)(里)(的)(人)(。这)(点)(对)(国)(内)(企)(业)(特)(别)(有)(意)(义)(。因)(为)(国)(内)(某)(些)(很)(流)(行)(的)(思)(维)(模)(式)(会)(在)(这)(浪)(潮)(下)(死)(的)(比)(较)(难)(看)(。
  这)(里)(面)(最)(危)(险)(的)(一)(种)(叫)(互)(联)(网)(时)(代)(已)(经)(不)(需)(要)(核)(心)(竞)(争)(力)(。这)(观)(点)(配)(合)(上)(当)(前)(顶)(级)(的)(一)(些)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(基)(本)(上)(模)(式)(取)(胜)(,确)(实)(没)(有)(什)(么)(核)(心)(技)(术)(,说)(服)(力)(立)(刻)(大)(增)(。
  但)(实)(际)(上)(这)(是)(非)(常)(片)(面)(上)(,在)(这)(点)(上)(彼)(得)(·蒂)(尔)(更)(实)(在)(些)(,在)(《从)(0到)(1》里)(,他)(不)(单)(把)(“专)(利)(技)(术)(”列)(为)(垄)(断)(企)(业)(核)(心)(特)(征)(的)(第)(一)(点)(,接)(下)(来)(才)(是)(网)(络)(效)(应)(和)(规)(模)(效)(应)(,此)(外)(还)(专)(门)(开)(辟)(了)(一)(章)(写)(“秘)(密)(”。在)(这)(点)(上)(华)(为)(的)(选)(择)(确)(实)(与)(其)(它)(企)(业)(不)(太)(一)(样)(。
  我)(们)(现)(在)(这)(种)(不)(需)(要)(核)(心)(竞)(争)(力)(的)(想)(法)(会)(带)(来)(很)(大)(的)(危)(险)(。有)(网)(络)(效)(应)(、规)(模)(效)(应)(支)(撑)(的)(地)(方)(可)(能)(还)(好)(,那)(里)(确)(实)(可)(以)(不)(太)(需)(要)(核)(心)(竞)(争)(力)(,只)(要)(看)(得)(准)(跑)(得)(快)(,一)(样)(可)(以)(有)(成)(绩)(,但)(机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(特)(征)(与)(互)(联)(网)(不)(同)(,所)(以)(它)(带)(来)(的)(世)(界)(很)(可)(能)(无)(法)(使)(用)(上)(述)(规)(则)(。
  互)(联)(网)(自)(身)(很)(像)(是)(基)(础)(设)(施)(,所)(以)(前)(些)(年)(还)(经)(常)(被)(称)(作)(信)(息)(高)(速)(公)(路)(,而)(基)(础)(设)(施)(是)(面)(向)(所)(有)(人)(的)(所)(以)(模)(式)(比)(较)(关)(键)(。
  机)(器)(智)(能)(则)(更)(像)(一)(种)(单)(点)(但)(价)(值)(高)(的)(技)(术)(,比)(如)(高)(级)(的)(加)(密)(算)(法)(、高)(性)(能)(的)(CPU等)(,所)(以)(技)(术)(等)(级)(会)(很)(关)(键)(。你)(设)(计)(、生)(产)(模)(式)(再)(好)(,技)(术)(工)(艺)(水)(平)(不)(到)(,航)(空)(发)(动)(机)(该)(造)(不)(出)(来)(还)(是)(造)(不)(出)(来)(。而)(一)(旦)(需)(要)(高)(价)(购)(买)(,那)(自)(己)(就)(会)(变)(成)(产)(业)(链)(条)(的)(下)(游)(。
  正)(因)(为)(这)(种)(不)(同)(,所)(以)(适)(合)(前)(者)(的)(模)(式)(不)(一)(定)(适)(合)(后)(者)(。这)(对)(研)(发)(模)(式)(影)(响)(最)(大)(。
  发)(动)(机)(要)(不)(要)(和)(飞)(机)(一)(起)(造)(
  弄)(航)(空)(发)(动)(机)(其)(实)(有)(两)(种)(思)(路)(:一)(种)(是)(认)(为)(它)(是)(飞)(机)(的)(一)(部)(分)(,这)(样)(就)(会)(把)(发)(动)(机)(的)(研)(发)(放)(在)(飞)(机)(的)(开)(发)(过)(程)(里)(面)(。一)(种)(则)(认)(为)(发)(动)(机)(是)(独)(立)(的)(一)(种)(东)(西)(,需)(要)(独)(立)(研)(发)(,而)(具)(体)(的)(飞)(机)(产)(品)(则)(选)(择)(适)(配)(不)(同)(型)(号)(的)(发)(动)(机)(。
  这)(问)(题)(很)(典)(型)(,在)(很)(多)(行)(业)(上)(都)(有)(,抛)(开)(具)(体)(场)(景)(并)(不)(能)(清)(楚)(的)(判)(断)(那)(种)(选)(择)(更)(好)(,但)(落)(在)(具)(体)(的)(约)(束)(条)(件)(下)(,是)(非)(就)(会)(很)(明)(显)(。
  飞)(机)(发)(动)(机)(显)(然)(不)(适)(合)(与)(飞)(机)(一)(起)(研)(发)(。因)(为)(它)(所)(需)(要)(的)(投)(入)(与)(周)(期)(完)(全)(不)(是)(飞)(机)(所)(能)(支)(撑)(的)(。形)(象)(点)(讲)(就)(是)(产)(品)(的)(研)(发)(周)(期)(与)(核)(心)(技)(术)(的)(周)(期)(不)(一)(致)(。这)(在)(纯)(拼)(产)(品)(和)(运)(营)(的)(年)(代)(里)(不)(是)(个)(问)(题)(,因)(为)(那)(时)(候)(核)(心)(技)(术)(上)(没)(什)(么)(太)(大)(壁)(垒)(,所)(以)(核)(心)(技)(术)(的)(研)(发)(周)(期)(比)(较)(短)(,主)(要)(表)(现)(为)(对)(现)(有)(技)(术)(进)(行)(吸)(收)(的)(时)(间)(,所)(以)(问)(题)(不)(大)(。
  机)(器)(智)(能)(和)(使)(用)(它)(的)(具)(体)(产)(品)(的)(关)(系)(就)(有)(点)(像)(航)(空)(发)(动)(机)(和)(具)(体)(型)(号)(的)(飞)(机)(。感)(觉)(上)(很)(多)(大)(公)(司)(认)(识)(到)(了)(这)(点)(,所)(以)(使)(劲)(砸)(钱)(成)(立)(各)(种)(研)(究)(室)(,挖)(很)(牛)(的)(人)(来)(抢)(制)(高)(点)(。
  上)(面)(说)(的)(事)(情)(只)(在)(一)(种)(情)(形)(下)(不)(成)(立)(。那)(就)(是)(机)(器)(智)(能)(变)(成)(一)(种)(标)(准)(化)(公)(开)(的)(的)(技)(术)(。确)(实)(存)(在)(这)(个)(可)(能)(,比)(如)(机)(器)(智)(能)(即)(服)(务)(、比)(如)(开)(源)(等)(。
  现)(在)(来)(看)(这)(几)(种)(趋)(势)(确)(实)(同)(时)(存)(在)(,大)(的)(互)(联)(网)(公)(司)(更)(偏)(向)(于)(自)(己)(拥)(有)(完)(整)(的)(机)(器)(智)(能)(技)(术)(,来)(改)(善)(自)(己)(的)(产)(品)(,而)(如)(IBM这)(样)(的)(公)(司)(则)(倾)(向)(于)(人)(工)(智)(能)(即)(服)(务)(,而)(Numenta这)(样)(的)(公)(司)(则)(是)(彻)(底)(的)(支)(持)(开)(源)(。
  如)(果)(是)(少)(数)(几)(个)(大)(公)(司)(跑)(到)(前)(面)(很)(大)(一)(截)(,那)(就)(可)(能)(会)(导)(致)(没)(有)(机)(器)(智)(能)(的)(同)(类)(产)(品)(立)(刻)(死)(掉)(,将)(来)(Google无)(人)(驾)(驶)(对)(阵)(传)(统)(汽)(车)(可)(能)(就)(是)(这)(形)(势)(。
  如)(果)(是)(机)(器)(智)(能)(即)(服)(务)(的)(跑)(到)(前)(面)(一)(大)(截)(,那)(就)(可)(能)(在)(这)(里)(崛)(起)(一)(个)(巨)(无)(霸)(,比)(如)(Palantir再)(涨)(大)(个)(十)(倍)(。
  如)(果)(开)(源)(的)(跑)(的)(最)(快)(,比)(如)(又)(出)(一)(个)(机)(器)(智)(能)(上)(的)(Linux,那)(就)(会)(重)(回)(模)(式)(取)(胜)(的)(老)(故)(事)(。
  小)(结)(
  前)(篇)(文)(章)(写)(了)(些)(机)(器)(智)(能)(对)(社)(会)(的)(影)(响)(,偏)(宏)(观)(,这)(篇)(收)(缩)(下)(,探)(讨)(下)(机)(器)(智)(能)(对)(未)(来)(产)(业)(的)(影)(响)(。我)(个)(人)(倾)(向)(于)(认)(为)(,现)(在)(死)(磕)(机)(器)(智)(能)(并)(取)(得)(优)(势)(的)(公)(司)(未)(来)(的)(前)(景)(更)(好)(。否)(则)(即)(使)(是)(苹)(果)(,如)(果)(只)(注)(重)(端)(,那)(在)(未)(来)(可)(能)(也)(会)(变)(的)(一)(身)(麻)(烦)(。
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